Today sees the release of December data from the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI®. The latest report – produced for Ulster Bank by S&P Global – pointed to a difficult end to 2022 as new orders fell sharply again and the rate of decline in output accelerated. Employment was unchanged, following 21 months of job creation. Meanwhile, inflationary pressures moderated.

Commenting on the latest survey findings, Richard Ramsey, Chief Economist Northern Ireland, Ulster Bank, said:

"Northern Ireland’s private sector started last year in expansion mode as the post-pandemic economic recovery gathered pace. Last January, businesses were optimistic for the year ahead with the expectation that growth would continue. This proved not to be the case. Largely as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which added fuel to the cost-of-living crisis, growth petered out and confidence ebbed away. Northern Ireland’s private sector therefore ended the year on a much more negative note. December saw output and orders fall for the eighth successive month. The contraction in output was the steepest in a decade outside of lockdowns.

All four sectors posted declines in output and orders although retail, services and construction firms did increase their staffing levels. The good news is that inflationary pressures moderated with firms reporting the weakest rise in input costs in 22 months. As a result, firms raised their prices at their slowest pace in almost two years. But these price rises still exceed anything that occurred in the pre-pandemic era. This time last year, firms were braced for a challenging year, but it turned out much worse than anticipated. December’s report suggests that negative sentiment is receding and that we may have passed peak pessimism. This year, expectations for the 12-months ahead are low but we could see the converse of last year with expectations being exceeded this time around."

The December PMI report for Northern Ireland and the NatWest report for the UK regions are attached for your information. Ulster Bank no longer sponsors the Republic of Ireland Construction PMI. BNP Paribas have taken over this survey. To be included on its distribution list please contact ellen.browne@bnpparibas.com

Further PMI material including a podcast and infographics are available at www.ulstereconomix.com


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